A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would result in heavy casualties not only in China and Taiwan, but also in the United States and Japan, one of Washington’s leading think tanks discovered after conducting war game simulations, mimicking a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
These war games, conducted by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), went through 24 scenarios of what an invasion might look like.
In the first three weeks of the invasion, more than 3,200 American soldiers would be killed in action, about half the casualties of the 20-year war in Iraq and Afghanistan. This excludes losses that may occur in other theaters such as the South China Sea. China would suffer the most casualties, losing around 10,000 in combat in the first three weeks of their invasion. According to the report, an overwhelming majority of the more than 30,000 Chinese survivors in Taiwan would likely become prisoners when the fighting ends.
Mark Cancian, the author of the war game report, said the United States must do more to strengthen Taiwan’s security in the Pacific, saying the United States could not send weapons after the invasion as they did in Ukraine. “Chinese air and naval capabilities are strong enough to prevent any reinforcements from reaching Taiwan. So Taiwan will have to have all its equipment before the conflict starts,” Cancian told Fox News.
INSPIRED BY UKRAINE, TAIWAN SEEK TO BOOST MILITARY READINESS AS CHINA THREAT CONTINUES
Cancian said the United States needed to step up its military shipments to Taiwan, especially long-range bombers equipped with long-range anti-ship missiles. “Our inventory of these missiles is very superficial. We deplete them in just a few days. We need to build many more,” he warned.
Ninety percent of coalition aircraft would be lost to Chinese missile attacks on the ground, not in the air. Cancian pointed out that building hardened shelters to protect the plane would be very important, calling out Andersen Air Force Base in Guam for not having hard shelters to provide protection for the plane. “Chinese missiles would destroy these planes,” he said.
Japan is a crucial element of Taiwan’s defense. The United States has bases in Japan, which house its attack aircraft. “They have relatively short legs. They need to get close to be able to influence the fighting in Taiwan. So the connection with Japan is absolutely essential to defend Taiwan,” Cancian said.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with President Biden in the Oval Office of the White House on Friday amid growing fears that China may have the ability to invade Taiwan in the coming years. “Japan and the United States currently face the most challenging and complex security environment in recent history,” Koshida told Biden.
FOR CHINA’S MILITARY PLANNERS, TAIWAN IS NOT AN EASY ISLAND TO INVADER
Kishida was accompanied to Washington by his foreign and defense ministers. The delegation has drawn up plans to build runways on uninhabited Japanese islands closer to Taiwan. Japan has announced that it will buy more Tomahawk missiles and long-range cruise missiles from the United States
Japan has committed to a historic increase in defense spending, 2% of GDP over the next five years, making it the third largest defense budget in the world. This is a major departure from Japan’s pacifist military strategy after World War II.
The United States and Japan announced a new space security agreement and a smaller, more advanced Marine Corps regiment with advanced intelligence and anti-ship missile capabilities that will be stationed in Okinawa, Japan. .
The 12th Marine Regiment already on Okinawa will become the 12th Marine Regiment Littoral by FY 2025. While no new units will be added to Okinawa under the agreement, it will transform the 12th Marine Regiment into a smaller and more rapidly mobile unit. It includes a combat team with an anti-ship missile battery, a logistics battalion and an air defense battalion. That would reduce the number of Marines in Okinawa, which is currently about 3,400 Marines and sailors, to about 2,000. “The idea is that he can contribute to this naval air conflict in the Western Pacific,” Cancian said.
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After a 2+2 meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and their Japanese counterparts on Wednesday, Austin explained the new capabilities of this Marine regiment. “We will equip this new formation with advanced surveillance, surveillance and intelligence reconnaissance systems, as well as anti-ship and transport capabilities suitable for current and future threat environments,” he said.
War games have helped bring China’s capabilities to the fore in unclassified space. “For a long time, Chinese military capabilities were not very impressive. Their air and naval power in particular was weak,” Cancian said. “That’s not true now. They’ve built those two up to a substantial amount. So building those American capabilities is going to be significant.”